Rates dropped again this week. Four weeks in a row now.

30-year mortgages are sitting at 6.17%. That’s the lowest they’ve been in over a year. Last time rates were this low? October 2024, when they briefly hit 6.12%.

So everyone’s asking – is this the moment? Should you finally pull the trigger?

Let me break down what’s actually happening and what it means for you.

The Numbers Everyone’s Talking About

30-year fixed: 6.17% (down from 6.19% last week) 15-year fixed: 5.41% (down from 5.44%)

A year ago? Rates were at 6.72%. So yeah, this is legitimately better.

But here’s what most people don’t realize – this probably won’t last.

Why Rates Are Dropping (And Why It Might Not Continue)

The 10-year Treasury yield has been coming down. Mortgage rates follow Treasury yields pretty closely. When Treasuries drop, mortgage rates usually follow.

But – and this is a big but – rates already ticked back up to 6.22% as of November 6. That four-week decline? It ended.

So if you’re waiting for rates to keep falling to 5% or lower, you might be waiting a long time.

What Does 6.17% Actually Mean For Your Payment?

Let’s do real math on a real house.

Say you’re buying a $500,000 home. You put 20% down. That’s a $400,000 loan.

At 6.72% (last year’s rate): $2,587 per month At 6.17% (this week’s rate): $2,432 per month

That’s $155 a month. About $1,860 a year. Over 30 years? You’re saving $46,800 in interest.

Not nothing.

But let’s compare it to earlier this year when rates were above 7%:

At 7.22% (early 2025): $2,734 per month At 6.17% (now): $2,432 per month

Now we’re talking $302 a month. $3,624 a year. That’s real money.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, says this “could allow a homebuyer to save thousands annually compared to earlier this year on a median-priced home, showing that affordability is slowly improving.”

The Refinance Boom Nobody’s Talking About

Here’s something interesting. Refinance applications are up 151% compared to a year ago.

People who bought or refinanced when rates were 7%+ are jumping on this. And they should be.

If you bought a house in the last two years at 7% or higher, you need to run the numbers right now. Refinancing could save you hundreds a month.

But there’s a catch. Refinancing makes sense if:

• Your current rate is at least 0.75% higher than today’s rate
• You’re planning to stay in the house long enough to recover closing costs
• Your credit’s still good and your home value hasn’t dropped

Why This Week Might Actually Be The Week

I know, I know. Everyone wants to wait for the perfect moment. Rates to hit 5%. Prices to crash. The ideal house to pop up.

But here’s reality – most experts think rates will stay in the low to mid-6% range for the next few months. Wells Fargo’s predicting 6.3% for Q4. National Association of Realtors says 6.7%.

Nobody’s calling for 5% rates anytime soon.

And home prices? They’re still climbing in most markets. Purchase applications actually dipped slightly even with lower rates because buyers are nervous about affordability. But that doesn’t mean prices are dropping.

The Fed’s Role In All This (Spoiler: It’s Not What You Think)

People keep saying “the Fed cut rates, so mortgage rates should drop.”

Wrong.

The Fed controls short-term rates – the rate banks charge each other overnight. Mortgage rates are long-term. They follow the 10-year Treasury, which is influenced by inflation expectations, economic growth, and investor sentiment.

The Fed cuts rates, but if investors think inflation’s coming back? Treasury yields go up. And mortgage rates follow them up, not the Fed funds rate.

That’s exactly what happened recently. Fed cut rates. Mortgage rates jumped anyway.

What About The People Who Got 3% Rates?

Yeah, those people exist. They got mortgages in 2020-2021 when rates hit record lows around 2.65%.

Are we going back there? No. Experts basically all agree on this.

Those rates required a global pandemic, massive Fed intervention, and the government buying up mortgage-backed securities like crazy. That was an emergency situation.

We’re back to normal now. And normal for mortgages over the last 50+ years is an average of 7.71%.

So 6.17%? That’s actually below the long-term average.

Three Scenarios For What You Should Do

Scenario 1: You’re ready to buy and you’ve got good credit

Stop waiting. Rates at 6.17% are solid. They might drop another 0.1% or 0.2%, but they could also jump back to 6.5% next week. If you find the right house at the right price, don’t let a few basis points hold you back. You can always refinance later if rates drop significantly.

Scenario 2: You bought in the last 2 years at 7%+

Call someone about refinancing. Today. Even if rates tick up to 6.3% by the time you close, you’re still saving money. The average loan size for refinance applications is at its highest level in six weeks. Smart people are moving on this.

Scenario 3: You’ve got a 3-4% mortgage from 2020-2021

Don’t touch it. Seriously. Even if you want to move, consider renting out your current place and buying a second home if you can swing it. Those rates are gold. You’re not getting that deal again.

The Real Question You Should Be Asking

Forget “when will rates hit 5%?” That’s the wrong question.

The right question is: “Can I afford this house at today’s rates, and does it make sense for my life?”

If the answer’s yes, then 6.17% vs 5.5% vs 6.5% doesn’t matter as much as you think. Over 30 years, home appreciation will probably matter way more than the difference between 6% and 5.5%.

Plus, if rates do drop significantly in the next few years, you can refinance. But if you wait and home prices keep climbing? You’re chasing a moving target.

What’s Coming Next

The Fed’s got another meeting December 9-10. They might cut again. They might not. Powell’s been pretty clear they’re taking it meeting by meeting.

Even if they cut, mortgage rates might not follow. We’ve seen that movie before.

We talked about how Fed rate cuts impact mortgages – it’s not as direct as people think.

The bond market’s calling the shots on mortgage rates right now, not the Fed.

My Take

Rates at 6.17% are good. Not amazing. Not terrible. Just good.

If you’ve been waiting for your moment, this might be it. Not because rates can’t go lower – they could. But because they could also go higher, and home prices aren’t waiting around.

The people who win in real estate aren’t the ones who time the market perfectly. They’re the ones who buy when it makes sense for their life and their budget, build equity, and adjust as they go.

Four weeks of declining rates feels nice. But don’t let it trick you into thinking we’re headed back to 3% mortgages. We’re not.

Make your decision based on where rates are, not where you wish they were.

Got a mortgage above 7%? Want to see if refinancing makes sense? Drop a comment or reach out. Let’s run your actual numbers.