Mortgage rates keep changing every day. Right now, everyone wants to know the same thing: Will rates go up or down next year?

We looked at what happened in September 2025 and found three ways rates might move. You could pay as low as 5.75% or as high as 7.25% on your home loan.

Sources: Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Treasury, CNBC, and Trading Economics

What’s Happening Right Now

The latest government reports show mixed news:

• Consumer prices rose 2.9% over the past 12 months, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• The consumer price index increased 0.4% in August, slightly above the expected 0.3%
• Gas prices went down (which helps keep other prices low)
• Stock markets stayed mostly calm

But here’s the big problem: Unemployment claims jumped to 263,000 for the week ending September 6 – the highest level since October 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. This was well above the 231,000 economists expected. This could change everything.

Way #1: Rates Drop to 5.875% – 6.25%

What has to happen: The government keeps the extra taxes on things from other countries (called tariffs)

If tariffs stay, here’s what could happen based on market analysis:

• Big government bonds (called 10-year Treasury) could drop from the current 4% level (as reported by CNBC) to 3.5%
• This should happen by early 2026, maybe sooner
• Your mortgage rate would be 5.875% to 6.25%
• Inflation keeps improving from current levels
• The Federal Reserve keeps slowly lowering rates

Why would this work? Those extra taxes bring in money for the government. The U.S. Department of Treasury reports show tariff revenue is helping the federal budget. This helps everything stay steady.

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Way #2: Rates Jump to 6.5% – 7.25%

What causes this: Courts say the extra taxes are illegal

If the courts say no more tariffs, things could get really bad:

• Government has to give back billions of dollars they already collected
• They’ll need to borrow more money to pay people back
• Those big government bonds go up to 4.5% or even 5%
• Your mortgage rate shoots up to 6.5% – 7.25%

This could happen fast – right after the Federal Reserve tells us their next move.

Way #3: The Best Case – Rates Drop to 5.25% – 5.75%

If everything goes perfect:

• Government bonds drop to 3.7% – 3.9%
• Prices get closer to where the Federal Reserve wants them
• A few more people lose jobs (sounds bad but actually helps rates go down)
• Banks don’t charge as much extra on home loans
• Your rate could be 5.25% – 5.75%

This is the best case, but everything has to work out just right.

What This Means for You

If you’re buying a house: The next few weeks matter a lot. Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to lower rates, with Bloomberg and CNBC reporting expectations of multiple rate cuts. But remember – your mortgage rate doesn’t always follow what the Federal Reserve does. Learn more about how Fed rate cuts really affect your mortgage.

If you want to refinance: Don’t wait for the perfect rate. If you can save money now, it might be smart to do it. Waiting for rates in the low 5s could mean waiting forever if Way #2 happens.

The big unknown: Jobs numbers are unpredictable right now. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows unemployment claims jumped to 263,000. If more people lose jobs, it could actually make mortgage rates go down faster than we think. Want to understand more about how high interest rates impact housing markets? We break it down for you.

Why You Need Help Right Now

With rates that could go anywhere from 5.25% to 7.25%, this is not the time to figure things out by yourself.

At Mortgage Maestro, we watch these numbers every day. Our team helps people get the best deals no matter what happens with rates. Whether rates drop to the mid-5s or go back up to 7%, we know how to find you the best deal.

Don’t let all this confusing stuff stop you from buying a home.

Let’s get you the home you need

The mortgage world is hard to understand, but buying your home doesn’t have to be. Our loan officers at Mortgage Maestro watch these changes every day. We work with lots of different lenders to make sure you get the best rate possible – no matter which way rates go.

Contact Mortgage Maestro today for a free talk about your situation and to see what rate you can get. We’ll help you understand your choices and pick the best time to get your mortgage – no matter what happens with rates.

Don’t let crazy rate changes cost you thousands of dollars. Let Mortgage Maestro help you.